CompoundPulse · Proof · 2026-10-02

XLK

$199.81 +1.01%
EDGE PRESENT
See the full read on XLK →
Technicals, earnings, options skew and insider size — the evidence behind this call.
89/100
Edge score

Long structure, confirmed, with a RISK-ON tape behind it.

This is the arithmetic sum of the named factors below — not a probability, not an accuracy claim. Everything that moved it is listed. Nothing is hidden in a model.

What produced that number

The market backdrop first, because the same setup is not the same trade in a different tape. Then this name’s own structure.

Market regime · RISK-ON
+30
Market trend
SPY above a rising 50-day average (uptrend)
+20
Volatility (VIX)
VIX 15.3 — calm, risk appetite healthy
-10
Volatility trend
VIX rising over the last week (fear building)
This name’s structure
+25
Location
At/above the 20-session high (198.54) — a breakout attempt
+15
Trend
Above a rising 50-day average — with the trend
+12
Participation
Volume 1.2× the 20-day average — the move is backed
+18
Relative strength
Outperforming SPY by 6.4% over 13 weeks — a leader

The levels

20-session range
$182.08 – $198.54
price sits at 108% of it
Daily range (ATR)
$3.04
1.5% of price
Volume
ABOVE AVERAGE
1.24× the 20-day average
Trigger

An observable, reproducible trigger: a completed daily close holding above 198.54 — the prior 20-session high.

Invalidation — where this idea is objectively wrong

The idea is objectively wrong on a completed close back through 192.68 (recent 5-session low).

Position sizing

Stop distance is $5.86 (level 198.54 → invalidation 192.68). Enter YOUR maximum planned loss to get an educational share-equivalent: units = floor(your risk ÷ $5.86). Excludes gaps, slippage, fees, fractional-share rules, leverage and options multipliers.

Completed-session volume is ABOVE AVERAGE versus the prior 20 sessions (1.24× average).

That was XLK. Check the next one.

Same engine, same transparency, any ticker. No card, no signup, no limit here.

Before you trust any of it: how often this score is wrong — we measured it · every trade the bot made, losers included

Why this is checkable

We publish how often we are wrong. The calibration for this score — including where it fails — is public at /research. Almost nobody in this category publishes that, and a score you cannot audit is an opinion with a decimal point.

We give you the level that proves it wrong, not just the entry. XLK is invalid below $182.08. Anyone can tell you where to buy; the number that protects capital is the one that ends the argument.

These levels are fixed for the 2026-10-02 session. They are not rewritten after the move, so this page can be checked against what actually happened.

Want this on every position, not just XLK?

Same standard, every name you hold. Seats open in order — no card.

Hold my seat →

Same check, next name

Same standard, same data, no signup.

Generated Oct 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET · data as of the 2026-10-02 session · these levels are fixed for the session, not rewritten after the move.

Objective market data and a transparent, rules-based framework — not financial advice, a recommendation, or a signal to buy or sell. The edge score is a sum of the named factors shown, not a probability or accuracy claim. Share-equivalent figures exclude gaps, slippage, fees, fractional-share rules, leverage and options multipliers. Trading involves risk of loss. We publish a measurement of this score’s own predictive power, including the part where it fails: see the calibration.